uncertainUCDP - Parametric Mixture Models for Uncertainty Estimation of
Fatalities in UCDP Conflict Data
Provides functions for estimating uncertainty in the
number of fatalities in the Uppsala Conflict Data Program
(UCDP) data. The package implements a parametric reported-value
Gumbel mixture distribution that accounts for the uncertainty
in the number of fatalities in the UCDP data. The model is
based on information from a survey on UCDP coders and how they
view the uncertainty of the number of fatalities from UCDP
events. The package provides functions for making random draws
of fatalities from the mixture distribution, as well as to
estimate percentiles, quantiles, means, and other statistics of
the distribution. Full details on the survey and estimation
procedure can be found in Vesco et al (2024).
